Уже Пиночет или еще Саакашвили?
Update: here's an English translation by my friend Tim Blauvelt:
Already Pinochet, or still Saakashvili?
Yulia Latynina
November 9, 2007 gazeta.ruPresident Saakashvili broke up the opposition’s demonstrations, closed (at least for 15 days) opposition television stations, and called for presidential elections and a referendum on the conduct of parliamentary elections on January 5.
He played once again on the edge of a precipice, like when he arrested defense minister Irakli Okruashvili and forced him to confess all his sins, literally in a Trotsky-Bukharin trial, and then chucked him out of jail and out of the country, instantly breaking the Trotsky-Bukharin logic and turning Okruashvili from a martyr into a clown.
The danger of the Georgian opposition, which overall is marginal, is not that it might take power, but rather that it might tempt Saakashvili into becoming a dictator. Now it’s not even clear – has this happened yet or not?
What is happening is important far beyond just the interests of Georgia itself or even of the Russian-Georgian relationship. In my view, a critical and decisive historical experiment is taking place in Georgia, and we in Russia have the opportunity to observe it close up, but at the same time from a distance.
Who is Mikhail Saakashvili?
Most of all, he belongs to a very rare breed of historical figures, such as Peter the Great or General Pinochet. These are politicians who change the fate of their countries. They’re not motivated by earning money from their posts or imposing ideas onto their countries (like communism, fundamentalism, and so forth), but rather they fundamentally change the tendency, structure and fate of society. Saakashvili obviously wants to see himself thusly: King David, Queen Tamar and Batono Mikhail. Or even better the other way around. Even a billion dollars would not be enough to dissuade him from this lofty goal. (We should point out that such figures are rarely democrats).
Secondly, such political figures are uncanny opportunists. Like Machiavelli, they know in their gut that nothing is true in and of itself – that everything depends on circumstances. The best example of this is Pinochet. He drove the Communists from power, he struck and struck, and then realized that it wasn’t working, so he called in the Chicago boys and said “Do your thing.”
Saakashvili came to power, and it seemed there would be war – for Abkhazia and South Ossetia. But then the conception changed – to a super-liberal, fast-growing Georgia. And now it’s clear that this new arrangement alone excludes war for the unrecognized republics, since no blooming super-liberal economy could allow itself even a victorious war, let along a drawn out guerilla one.
Thirdly, such a politician does things that would seem impossible for an ordinary politician. They do not reform the laws. They reform the mentality, destroying as a class whole layers of society. There were “Thieves-in-Law” in Georgia – Saakashvili destroyed them all, or put them in prison, or drove them out. They approached them all and asked “Are you a Thief-in-Law?” “I’m a Thief-in-Law.” “Then go sit in prison.” (And its forbidden for them to deny they are Thieves-in-Law, or they would get whacked[according to the Thieves code]). There were corrupt cops in Georgia – Saakashvili sacked 80% of them and selected new ones, and GAI [the State Auto Inspectorate] has been removed altogether. Who could have imagined that policemen in Georgia would not take bribes on the road? That a stranded motorist would be pleased to see a policeman coming, and think “He’ll help me change my tire”!
They don’t extort. And people are pleased.
These layers of society that were destroyed as a class give birth not just to an opposition, but to a monstrous opposition. (As they hated Peter the Great in Russia?) And this opposition cannot verbalize its complaints. Can corrupt Georgian ex-cops come to demonstrations with the slogan “Put us back in place, let us take bribes again”? So therefore those who come talk nonsense. (Thus the opposition to Peter the Great did not demand “Let the Russian boyars become illiterate again.” They shouted “The Tsar is the Antichrist!”).
This is the important thing to understand: this is a different type of opposition. In the US the Democrats argue “We must withdraw the troops from Iraq,” and they bring out serious points. And the Republicans argue “We must keep them there,” and they also bring up serious points. Both of them want to see a prosperous country. They just disagree on the means, on the “how”. Things are different during reforms. During reforms the opposition are primarily those who want everything to stay as it was. And they could care less that “as it was” means sitting in a swamp.
And one must not assume that reformers always win out. The worst example is the Iranian Shah Reza Pahlavi. If he had won, Iran might now be the equal of China and India. But the opposition won, and made things “how they were” – under the Fatimides.
As I already said, such reformers are rarely democrats. The democratic caftan strains on them like a rabbit skin throw on Pugacheva.
Perhaps for all the jabbering on our media channels, always eager to pour a tub of slop on Saakashvili, not every reader has figured out with what the opposition protests began. This is what: parliamentary elections in Georgia were supposed to be in the Spring, and presidential elections in the Fall. And Saakashvili moved the parliamentary elections to the Fall in an obvious attempt to strengthen parliamentary elections with his own weight and assure himself with an absolute majority, as he has now. That’s not exactly the step of a dictator, but it’s not entirely that of a democrat either. What, are elections like furniture that can be dragged around at a president’s will?
But for me personally none of that is central. What is central is this: we are observing in Georgia how its president is smashing post-Soviet society, a society of congenital bribe-takers, corrupt cops and thieves. He is dragging his country into Europe and NATO by its nostrils, creating a super-liberal economy. And at the same time he is building a state, since before Saakashvili there was no state in Georgia. There was something else. There was basically this: independent South Ossetia lives, and it lives on bringing contraband American liquor through Poti and the Roki Tunnel into Vladikavkaz. And the Georgian authorities – up to the very highest level – were participants in this. Basically, the same as the Kremlin does in Chechnya now.
So when Russia will start to build a real state (and it will have to build one some time), then it will have to do the same: through out all the corrupt cops – and that’s a million people. Drive out the bureaucrats – that’s already a couple million more. Disperse to the four winds the entire army, that is no more useful to us than the Streltsy were under Peter the Great.
And it’s very important to me: doing the same in a smaller space, will Saakashvili be able to remain a democratic leader?
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With all these unsettling events in Georgia, maybe it's appropriate that we take not forget the days of the Rose Revolution.
Things have cooled off significantly in Georgia: Saakashvili has decided to seek a new mandate immediately to stop events from spiraling out of control.
Here is the a translation of Saakashvili's official statement of a few hours ago:
I have a proposal to hold presidential elections on January 5, 2008.
- I give the opposition the chance to become the people’s choice;
- Yesterday’s events were our response to conspiracy against Georgian democracy;
- Yesterday we protected not the government; we have protected yesterday the Georgian democracy, Georgian society;
- I want to hold a plebiscite in parallel to presidential elections so that the people decide when to hold the parliamentary elections;
The main streets are open now, and lot fewer soldiers and police are visable.
Now the big question is, will Saakashvili win the elections he was forced to call? On the one hand my feeling is that he is universally hated in the country for his aloofness, arbitrariness and for not improving the standard of living fast enough (though it's doubtful that anyone else could have done better), but on the other hand there is no other realistically viable candidate.
Here is a personal account of yesterday's events by a journalist friend of mine in Tbilisi:
a blow by blow account... if you'd actually been on the street since the morning you would not even think of using the word justified.
i arrived at 11.30, but at 08.00 my cameraman was there, he was punched in the stomach and had his camera confiscated and his tape stolen. they gave back the camera and then said we were lying that there was any tape in there (do western democracies do this?)
anyway, when i arrived police were standing behind metal barricades keeping the road open, there was no vilence and the protestors more or less filled the pavement. however, owing to that morning's events [when protesters were dispessed by the police by force - GL], the protest grew much larger than it would otherwise have done. by 12.30 the crowd had swelled, police moved back the barricades and only half the road was open. there was minor scuffling at that point. nothing serious, i was able to move around the crowd and the police lines without fear. as more and more people gathered, and the police refused to move the line bak, the situation became tenser, one of our cameras was destroyed. at about 1 the number of protestors had grown large enough to make any attempt at keeping open the road futile, and the police marched off. the crowd then turned to face parliamnet, began chanting 'tsadi tsadi' ["go away, go away" - GL] as usual. i though at that point that everything would be fine, just more of the same we had seen since friday. the crowd were still peaceful i must stress. a few minutes later, we heard a stomping sound and turned to see an approaching phalanx of riot police marching in step and beating their shields. the protestors rushed to push the metal barricades in front. the riot police, water cannon and noise weapons (i don't what else to call them, but they are horrible). without saying anything like 'disperse or we move in', they begn firing volley after volley of tear gas into the crowd, turned on the water cannons and the noise and started beating people. the protestors were scattered fairly soon, but moved round to the opera, where the riot police used exactly the same tactics, this time using so much tear gas that it ttally filled the street--no wonder over 500 people are i hospital.
as for what happened on the riqe [a square far removed from the site of the demonstration - GL], the crowd was totally peaeful and the road was open!! there was no talk of returning to parliament. i interviewed virtually every opposition leader there and the only thing they said was 'civil disobedience' 'we are the georgian ghandis'. the riot police then gathered on baratashvili bridge. as you know, effectively the only way on and off the riqe is baratashvili and metekhi bridges, as the water cannon, rubber bullets and gas began at baratashvili (again without the slightest provocation), the crowd surged to metekhi only to find that cut off by riot police too, so they were effectively trapped. my producer was shot in the head with a rubber bullet and my colleague in the leg,they hid in a cellar. my crew and i were inches from getting beaten, they were chasing us and we were clearly journalists, we fled through the tunnel after a really generous soul piled us into his car. we all met up in ortachala, and because spetznaz [Russian for special ops -GL]were everywhere we had to go back to theoffice via narikala and mother georgi for fear of having our tapes stolen. also, many of the people on the riqe were ordinary tbilisi citizens who had no part in the protests, they were there because they were rightly outraged by what happened.
justified? i think not
I've tried to steer as clear of politics in this blog but I think I have to say a few words about what is going on in Tbilisi.
In short, things are not well. As I said before, its really hard to support the opposition here since they really don't have much of a platform and it also seems to me that people have always had unreasonably high expectation of Saakshvili but all this notwithstanding there is no question that our Misha (as he's often called) has become less and less sensitive to those around him.
He is a very intelligent, driven and passionate man, but he simply does not seem to take other people's views very seriously. He does not comprise. He is a populist. He marginalizes those who disagree with him.
But still, he was truly committed to Georgia and the best democrat the country had ever seen.
At least, that was until today. Now, nobody knows what's happening and the whole city is in shock and horror.
Last night when it became apparent that a core group of demonstrators were not going to abandon the protests, the police cleared them with tear gas and clubs. Today, when people returned to the demonstrations in solidarity of those that were attacked, they were met with even more force.
The Metro was shut down. Traffic in the city is eerily quiet in some places and at a standstill in others. There are many hundreds (if not thousands) of police and soldiers in full riot gear attacking people. The TV is full of images of water canons and bleeding faces. I went by Republic square today all over the huge square there were blue spent teargas canisters.
Opposition leaders have been arrested. Saakashvili has been accused the Opposition of being Russian agents. The Imedi (Hope in Georgian) TV station is surrounded by the police and shut down.
I can't believe I'm writing this, but the city has the feel that it's under occupation. I was hear for the Rose Revolution, and believe me, it was nothing like this.
Things Fall Apart, by the way, is a great book by Chinua Achebe.
Well, most of what you read about the protest in Tbilisi is true.
There are huge rallies, people seem to be on the streets for the long haul, and the government doesn't seem to want to budge (the main point seems to be that the opposition wants earlier parliamentary elections). So far everything has been pretty peaceful, but still people seem worried and there none of the euphoria of the Rose Revolution.
What I find distressing is the opposition’s platform (minus a few truly wacky ideas like a monarchy) does not significantly differ from Saakashvili's. What Georgia needs is a moderate politician who is wants to steer the country between East and West, but all the significant players (from what I gather) are as committed to the West (and to annoying Russia) as Saakashvili is. If anyone emerged who was a carbon copy of Saakashvili, but with a different name, he would be in power tomorrow, however what this would change is the significant question
Finally, thought the level of dissatisfaction with Saakashvili is real, we shouldn't forget that the fact that such protests are possible says a great deal about Georgia's democratic credentials.
